Shia Strength: [MahdiUniteMuslims] Somalia: Toxic Developments in Somalia

Toxic developments in Somalia: Horn of Africa under threat
20 May 20, 2009 - 12:27:25 AM

by Faizal Abdikarim

For the past weeks, Mogadishu has seen an intense fighting between the Interim Government and Islamist rebels mixed with tribal militias. The opposition has captured key areas formerly controlled by the ill-feted government of Somalia. The last several days, the Islamist opposition has been extending their fighting into other regions, taking over Mahadeey and Jawhar, the provincial city of Middle Shebelle. In central regions, Alshabab, the most powerful group, are engaged in sectarian fighting with Sufi group, Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a who are allied to the government.

The reason behind the fighting is clear; the Islamist rebels want to unseat the president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed; a former colleague who turned president after joining the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG). in UN brokered peace-talks in neighbouring Djibouti.

President Ahmed split from the " Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), an opposition group formed in Eritrea in Sept 2007, which comprised Islamist hardliners, opposition lawmakers and nationalist Somalis from Diaspora, interlinked by their opposition to the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, before he was elected as president in January.

His election was the outcome of power sharing talks between the government and the "moderate Islamist opposition" chaired by the United Nation's envoy to Somalia, Ahmed Ould-Abdallah, a veteran Mauritanian diplomat. But not all Islamists supported his deal. The hardliners of his former alliance had rejected the deal leading the fragile alliance to split.

Based on the agreement between the defected group of Sheikh Sharif and Kenya-formed Transitional Government, the size of the transitional parliament was doubled to reach 550 seats, and Sheikh Sharif's supporters have been offered the added-seats, assuring his to win the election is landslide. He succeeded former president, Abdullahi Yusuf who had resigned due to an international pressure. Yusuf was largely considered as an obstacle to peace, after refusing to have direct talks with Islamist groups.

Certainly, for the "International community" that brokered the dialogue and backed Sharif to win the election (because he was mandated to bring half of the parliament from his party obviously to help him win against any contester) to gain the "moderates" and isolate the "radicals", his victory was a sigh of relief. But for Somalia, his election as president was yet another sign of more violence and destruction ahead.

Soon after his election, four other Islamist groups have formed an umbrella "Hizbul Islam" including his former colleagues in the ARS. This was not surprising though, because most of Islamist fighters consider the international community's support to his government as conspiracy against their "victory".

In April, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a hardliner on UN and US terror list, returned to Mogadishu after two years exiled in Eritrea. His unprecedented return had prompted speculation that he intended to reconcile with Sheikh Sharif but on contrast, he started to regroup all Islamist fighters and prepare for war.

In a bid to undermine their influence, the president has taken key steps including an endorsement of Sharia law implementation, meetings with clan elders of Hawiye and offered dialogue to the opposition but the doors were all the time closed by Islamist rebels who regard the move as cover-up.

Then, war of words broke out with both sides trading accusations of importing weaponry and engineering trouble.

Clerics' initiative:

After Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia in Jan this year, Somali clerics and others from the Muslim World have visited Mogadishu in lobby for peace and dialogue among Islamist fighters. After a week-long meeting, they released a communiqué that called for the government to withdraw the AU peacekeepers from Somalia, implement Sharia law and urged the opposition to work with the government and accept its legitimacy. Sadly, that strategy has failed after Alshabaab declined any reconciliation with Sharif and criticized the efforts of Muslim clerics as partial. By trying to dictate Alshabaab by FATWA, Muslim clerics have made a mistake.

The group doesn't rely on the World Muslim Clerics led by Dr.Yusuf Alqardawi, Al-azhar Clerics of Egypt or Saudi Arabian Clerics' Senior Commission for their religious thoughts and acts but receive command from Al-Qaida leaders who similarly have no respect to scholars that don't share their radical ideology.

In the past, the expulsion of foreign troops from Somalia, including the AU Peacekeeping Mission were the ostensible goals of all Somali insurgents, but Alshabaab's genuine ambitions have been far beyond the "re-liberation of Somalia from an Ethiopian occupation" the rallying-cry for all insurgents and yet has not changed.

Hizbul Islam and Alshbaab:

Hisbul Islam was first formed as an umbrella of four Islamist groups excluding Alshabaab to unify their front in face of a "Unity Government" led by former Islamist colleagues. As alliances are fragile in Somalia, Hizbul-Islam split into two groups after some members defected to the government. The main group is chaired by Dr. Omar Imaan, a notorious Sharia scholar. The name seems to have changed the Al-itahad brand name of the 1990's because the group's leaders, like Hassan Dahir Aweys, are former influential members of Alitahad. But not all of Alitahad members today support his plot, some are supporting the Interim Government, others are neutral or simply don't want to be drawn into Muslim infighting or "Fitna". Al-itahad Alislami fought Ethiopia in the90's in their stronghold, Gedo region of Somalia, but some of its prominent clerics in the breakaway regions of Somaliland and Puntland do not currently support their former commander's policy to fight the government. However, they lost their young followers to Alshabaab.

Alshabaab are certainly the only organized Islamist group in the country with obvious target; to form an Islamic Caliphate that has no borders and different nationalities. They don't recognize Somalia's international boundaries, which is a big concern for neighboring Ethiopia. Whether in Swat valley of Pakistan or in Mogadishu, Al-Qaida has the same agendas.

Unbound to clan affiliations that disintegrate Somalia, Alshabaab fighters are recruited from all regions of Somalia, an important factor that gave them a boost to defeat their unorganized enemy, the TFG which has never been out of controversy since its formation in 2004. Though Hisbul-Islam and Alshabaab both say want to implement the Sharia law, the former want to localize where the later have international ambition to reach out to neighboring countries and to the world.

Frankenstein's Monster:

Even before the Ethiopian intervention, foreign fighters have been present in Somalia, giving trainings to newly recruited Islamist fighters. They enjoyed clan sanctuary during the two year conflict with Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu. Despite their existence during his reign as the chairman of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), president Sharif had denied their presence for political gains, and today he is paying the price of his past complicity with foreign Jihadists in Somalia. Even the "Hawiye Elders Committee" that gave moral and material support to Islamist uprising during the Ethiopian intervention, had never spoken out against the presence of foreign fighters but supported to bring Abdullahi Yusuf's government into its knees. But as the common enemy is no longer in place, they have to bear the war-thirsty Frankenstein.

Eritrean intervention:

Eritrea has been accused of supporting the insurgents and shipping weapons to their stronghold, an accusation dismissed by both Eritrean government and the Islamist rebels. But for Eretria's long history of destabilization across the region, such allegations are not worrisome.

When the Union of the Islamic courts took over Mogadishu and most of Southern regions in 2006, Eritrea emerged as the major imprudent supporter of the Islamist radicals. It shipped military aid, including arms, bombs and uniforms and allegedly sent military experts to Somalia. And when the UIC had been defeated by Ethiopian troops late in 2006, most of Islamist leaders, including the current president, and the opposition leaders that are now challenging him, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Dr. Omar Iimaan, were all hosted by Eritrea. Each report of the United Nation's group of monitoring arms embargo on Somalia has the mention of Eritrea as a violating the embargo. Unfortunately, nothing has been done so far to hold Eritrea and other violators accountable for such fatal breaches while Somalia burns.

Ahlu Sunah Waljama'a:

Alshabaab's destruction of graves for prominent and much-respected Sufi clerics has invited trouble. Anger and fury has grown among Sufi followers who traditionally desire not to take arms but rather yearn to spread their ideology through peaceful means. Today, Sufi groups are armed under the slogan of "Ahulu Sunnah Waljama'ah" and engage in fierce fighting with Alshabaab in the central regions of Somalia. Though Alshabaab usually has the upper hand in their fighting with the government or clans, they can hardly defeat the Sufi group, not because the later is so powerful, but because no group has ever won in such sectarian fighting even in such similar conflicts like Iraq.

Since the Sufi group regards Alshabaab as " Khawārij" the radical sect that emerged in 7^th century AD and assassinated Ali Ibn Abi Talib, the fourth Muslim Caliphate, they are spiritually talented to engage in long fighting with Alshabaab in search for martyrdom. Most of Somalis follow the Sufiyah doctrine so do most of Muslim World. Wahabism Ideology is commonly alienated across Somalia.

On conclusion, the Transitional Federal Government or the "Unity Government" as recently called, is absolutely fragile, vulnerable and close to collapse. Most of Southern regions including the capital Mogadishu, except few strips, are under the control of Alshabaab or the Hizbul Islam. Their fast expansion is tantamount to their early rising in 2006, before they were blocked by Ethiopian troops in late 2006 in support to the Transitional Government, led by Col. Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed.

Taking advantage from their past mistakes, the Islamists have adopted new strategy; they want to extend their domination to uncontrolled areas in the South before going into direct fighting with the African Union Peacekeepers or stepping into the breakaway regions of Puntland and Somaliland. However, when they consolidate their military control over the no-mans-land and topple the government, the peacekeepers have no other option but to fight or leave and perhaps they have no reason to fight.

The current "International Community's efforts are not enough to save Somalia from descending into deeper crisis that could plunge the whole region into pools of blood. They need to disregard old policies, draw new road-map, and revise their politics towards Somaliland and Puntland, two peaceful regions that are constantly threatened by an ever-increasing radicalization, and are less supported in terms of development and recognition of their achievement.

The writer is Somali journalist based in Europe and can be reached at journo20@gmail.com

Muslims "must" unite all over the World
and pray for the appearance of al Mahdi (r.a.) the Saviour of mankind
the descendent of Prophet Muhammed s.a.w.

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